"Causal density"

In my last post I opinionated about how it's near impossible, in social science research (or media effects, in this case), to account for every possible confounding variable. Now Kevin Drum reviews a new book by Jim Manzi, Uncontrolled, about the same problem, and names it: Causal density. Drum:

If you're studying the orbit of a planet, you can pretty much assume there's only one important cause of the planet's movement: gravity. Causal density is low. In medicine, there are more things to worry about, but a lot of problems are still tractable. Causal density is moderate. But in human affairs, there are lots of causes of everything, there are causes of the causes, and the causes often interact in complex ways. Causal density is very high, which means it's very hard to make sure you've accounted for everything. No matter how sophisticated your statistical tools are, it's always possible that something you haven't thought of is lurking in the background and throwing off your results.

The book is apparently mostly about business and policy, but it looks highly relevant for for social scientists as well. I'm adding it to my stack of books I hope to read sometime soon.

 

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One reason I don’t like effects studies

Many of us got into journalism to make a difference; some of us got into research, not to put too fine a point on it, to see if we’re making a difference. I’m at a school with a long tradition of research in media effects — that’s the the term for looking at both what people remember about what they see in their news or entertainment, and how they feel and what they do about it.

We have lots of different ways to study and measure these effects, and many of them rely on experiments: Show some people some media “content” such as news stories and pictures, and gauge their reactions. This approach aims to isolate the news messages and keep everything else constant.

I’ve always had a visceral dislike for this sort of experiment, because I don’t believe anything can be isolated from its context. We sort of take it on faith that the effects we see in the experiment are happening the same way out in the real world. A lot of them are. But how many variables does the experimenter not account for?

Did your last effects experiment control for the subjects’ native language?

Something we’ve figured out in the past half-century is that people aren’t coldly rational when making decisions. OK, obvious, right? But we’re irrational in predictable ways, most notably that if we are given the same problem expressed in two ways, one emphasizing possible gain and one emphasizing possible loss, we’ll tend to make different decisions in each case.

BUT. It now turns out that this effect may disappear when a subject is solving problems in a non-native language.

The first experiment involved 121 American students who learned Japanese as a second language. Some were presented in English with a hypothetical choice: To fight a disease that would kill 600,000 people, doctors could either develop a medicine that saved 200,000 lives, or a medicine with a 33.3 percent chance of saving 600,000 lives and a 66.6 percent chance of saving no lives at all.

Nearly 80 percent of the students chose the safe option. When the problem was framed in terms of losing rather than saving lives, the safe-option number dropped to 47 percent. When considering the same situation in Japanese, however, the safe-option number hovered around 40 percent, regardless of how choices were framed. The role of instinct appeared reduced.

Two subsequent experiments in which the hypothetical situation involved job loss rather than death, administered to 144 native Korean speakers from Korea’s Chung Nam National University and 103 English speakers studying abroad in Paris, found the same pattern of enhanced deliberation. “Using a foreign language diminishes the framing effect,” wrote Keysar’s team.

It’s not that testing native and non-native speakers together is bad science; until that study was published (paywall), we didn’t know second languages played a role. But that’s the point: The universe of potential confounding variables is so large that you can’t control for them all.

So when I look at an experimental effects study I always wonder what the researchers might have missed.

 

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It is not known why they keep doing this

One bad habit of journalists, especially at legacy news organizations, is assuming the voice of the wider public. From a story at the local paper on a big-deal business dispute:

Ecclestone, a longtime friend of Hellmund's, said that contract with Hellmund had been canceled because Hellmund was in breach of it.

It is not known what led to the breach.

Well, at least two people, Ecclestone and Hellmund, do know, and most likely some number of people who work for them do too. Other people involved in the deal as well, probably.

What the paper means is that “it is not known” at the newspaper what the breach is over.

Of course you wouldn’t expect them to say “We don’t know,” since that sounds more clueless than necessary, and newspapers avoid the royal “we” with good reason. But they could tamp down the presumption by saying “It is not publicly known what led to the breach.” They could even add “and no one on either side would comment,” since surely the paper tried to find out.

Same information, more accessible tone, happier readers.

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Objectivity and OWS

Preach it, sistah:

Similarly, if the mainstream media prides itself on reporting the facts, I have found too many problems with what does or does not get to be a fact — or what rises to the level of a fact they believe to be worth reporting — to be part of such a machine. Going forward, I want to take responsibility for my voice and the facts that I choose and relay. I want them to instigate change.

That's freelance journalist Natasha Lennard on why the "objective" journalism mindset that dominates the New York Times (and most other news organizations) has driven her to abandon those mainstream outlets.

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Journalism, hierarchies, and the Occupy movement

Micah Sifry has a thoughtful post contrasting the news media establishment's search for the "leaders" of Occupy Wall Street with the flat, non-hierarchical makeup of the movement itself. His critique starts with the latest column by Arthur Brisbane, the "public editor" at the New York Times.

Admirably, Brisbane asks how the Times should report on the Occupy Wall Street movement, going forward, but like many of his peers, he can't let go of his notion of how political movements must work. "Who is Occupy Wall Street?" he asks. Though he quotes a reader who told him that the movement's lack of traditional leaders is part of its message, he can't let go of the idea that it must have some. "An investigation into [its] origins would lead to the identities of early leaders, at least, and the search for the broader leadership of the movement should continue from there," he writes.

… For many traditional political observers like Brisbane and his colleagues, the notion that a political movement might arise without charismatic leaders is inconceivable. … A movement can't be leaderless, right? Who would we feature on the front-page? Who would we put on the Sunday talk shows? Who would we negotiate with? Who is the saviour that will rise from these streets?

Sifry goes on to describe the Occupy movement as, instead, leaderful — based on lateral connections rather than hierarchical ones. Anyone might take a leadership role at any time. This "represents the flowering of something very deep about our networked age. it is personal democracy in action, where everyone plays a role in shaping the decisions that affect our lives. We may face huge challenges, but while some of our material resources are in scarce supply, we have an abundance of leaders coming."

I've noted the same tendency in the press that Sifry points out, and I think it’s an ingrown bias of news organizations that has partly to do with the dominant journalistic mindset, and partly to do with journalist's routines. Anyone who's been in a newsroom knows how the routines work: You decide to find out about something that happened (or might be happening or about to happen), and often the first thing you do is talk to the people involved. If an institution is involved — City Hall, a business, an NGO — you try to reach the person in charge, or at least a spokesperson.

Dealing with a minimally structured group such as OWS is a lot more work: You have to talk to a lot more people to even get a sense of what's going on. This kind of reporting takes a lot of time, and journalists these days have no time to spare.

The mindset grows partly from those routines; if you do something the same way often enough, you find it’s easy to believe that that’s the best or only way to do it. Also, journalists at large news organizations are working within a hierarchy and ipso facto are comfortable with the structure. A group functioning in a diametrically opposed fashion will appear suspicious.

Some journalists have cleared these hurdles and written well and insightfully about the Occupy movement. But the journalism system on the whole pulls coverage the other way. The longing for “leaders” is no accident.

 

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Book review

I was at the library and decided to pick up a novel to keep me occupied during down time. A thriller on the new-books shelf looked interesting, so I checked it out. Here, with apologies to H.L. Mencken, is my review:

Dead Zero, by Stephen Hunter, Simon & Schuster 2010, 406pp. "Ray Cruz, a gunnery sergeant in the United States Marine Corps, was one of those rare men with a personality of hard metal–unmalleable, impenetrable, unstoppable. Back at battalion, he was called the Cruise Missile." Thus the story begins. God knows how it ends.

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SXSWi has crossed the bloat line

It’s now undeniable: SXSWi is too big. The five-day multimedia geekfest here in Austin hit 15,000 registrants this year and spread its programming out across several “campuses” — collections of meeting rooms at convention centers and hotels.

This is a fine idea, but the actual venues are spread out from the UT campus to south of the river, with downtown and its notoriously snarled traffic in the middle. As a result, I’ve had to miss some excellent panels because they were effectively impossible to get to. (Felix Salmon referred to the AT&T Conference Center at UT as “Siberia”.)

I know people say “It’s gotten too big” every year, but now the problem has gone beyond long lines and crowded sessions; it’s often physically impossible to get from one session to another. This would make more sense if the subject areas were more discrete, but at this event that can’t be done. I’m wrapped up in “future of journalism” questions, but I’ve attended only a fraction of the events on that campus, the Sheraton on the north edge of downtown. The “social graph” is key to the future of journalism, but that campus is at the Hyatt south of the lake.

This isn’t to say the organizers should have put the social graph sessions closer to FoJ (though I’d have been happier if they had); that would just gore someone else’s ox. Rather, it’s just finally time to scale back down until all the events are within walking distance. SXSWi is all about collaboration and “synergy”, and spreading venues two-plus miles apart is contrary to that spirit.

Someone told me that SXSW organizers have historically been willing to turn back from ideas that didn’t work. Here’s hoping they do the same for the campus positions.

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Is the open Web on the way out?

Two of my seminars this week are discussing interactivity, Web 2.0 and related matters. It certainly can seem as if we're in a golden age of connection and digital freedom that will continue well into the future. But yesterday former Salon editor Scott Rosenberg raised the specter of a different, perhaps equally likely outcome: That our freewheeling, open Web will prove to be a historical exception, not the rule.

Rosenberg uses as a model the "Gutenberg parenthesis," the idea that the four centuries of text-dominated communications that followed the invention of the printing press were an anomalous interim between the oral culture that came before and the oral-digital culture that may now be taking shape.

What if the “open Web” were just this sort of parenthesis? What if the advent of a (near) universal publishing platform open to (nearly) all were not itself a transformative break with the past, but instead a brief transitional interlude between more closed informational regimes?

Per Tantak Celik, the Open Web allows us to

  • publish content and applications on the web in open standards
  • code and implement the web standards that that content/apps depend on
  • access and use content / code / web-apps / implementations

Which requires:

  • open formats for freely publishing what you write, photograph, video and otherwise create, author, or code (e.g. HTML, CSS, Javascript, JPEG, PNG, Ogg, WebM etc.)
  • domain name registrars and web hosting services that, like phone companies, don't judge your content
  • cheap internet access that doesn't discriminate based on domains

For Rosenberg, "it’s hard not to conclude that today we’re seeing the strongest challenge to the open Web ideal since the Web itself began taking off in 1994-5."

The trend-line of today’s successful digital platforms is moving noticeably towards the closed end of this spectrum. We see this at work at many different levels of the layered stack of services that give us the networks we enjoy today — for instance:

  • the App Store — iPhone apps, unlike Web sites and services, must pass through Apple’s approval process before being available to users.
  • Facebook / Twitter — These phenomenally successful social networks, though permeable in several important ways, exist as centralized operations run by private companies, which set the rules for what developers and users can do on them.
  • Comcast — the cable company that provides much of the U.S.’s Internet service just merged with NBC and faces all sorts of temptations to manipulate its delivery of the open Web to favor its own content and services.
  • Google — the big company most vocal about “open Web” principles has arguably compromised its commitment to net neutrality, and Open Web Foo attendees raised questions about new wrinkles in Google Search that may subtly favor large services like Yelp or Google-owned YouTube over independent sites.

Regarding the App Store, I note that Steven B. Johnson (Where Good Ideas Come From) was quoted Monday as saying that on the spectrum from open-source to Willy Wonka, Apple was "extreme Wonka".

Rosenberg, reporting from a Foo camp, found cause for optimism:

For me, one of the heartening aspects of the Foo weekend was seeing a whole generation of young developers and entrepreneurs who grew up with a relatively open Web as a fact of life begin to grapple with this question themselves. And one of the questions hanging over the event, which Anil Dash framed, was how these people can hang on to their ideals once they move inside the biggest companies, as many of them have.

What’s at stake here is not just a lofty abstraction. It’s whether the next generation of innovators on the Web — in technology, in services, or in news and publishing, where my passion lies — will be free to raise their next mutant offspring.

Indeed. I still sometimes marvel every time I open a YouTube video — I know that service has a hard time paying for itself, so I often wonder how long it will be available; we don't control most of the tools we use. (That also goes for Blogger, WordPress, and social-media sites such as Facebook and Twitter.) I'm glad some smart folks are working on the problem.

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Well, that's just spiffy

As seen on Google News

Does the stock market track unemployment? Tell us, journalists!

UPDATE: I've seen this sort of movement before, where higher unemployment = more demand for work = lower wages = stock market goes up, but apparently we're in an exceptional situation where no one is hiring anyway. Andrew Leonard takes a look at the news.

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Social media shine in the UT shooter incident

Tuesday's incident on the University of Texas campus where a student shot an AK-47 several times and then killed himself at the library makes a fine case study of social media in action.

First, the university's alert system sent text messages to my phone and thousands of others within a very few minutes of the early reports of a man with a gun on campus. More texts and e-mails throughout the day included status updates and advice (mainly, "sit tight, don't wander around").

Second, Twitter and Facebook got busy quickly. The hashtag #utshooter probably carried the most information. Some people (in my network, most notably Avery Holton) and passed along reports, most of which turned out to be true. Early reports of a second person with a gun turned out to be wrong, but everyone including the police was saying it was possible, so no surprise there.

Reports came from people watching TV news and reading news websites and listening to the radio, and from those holed up in offices and classrooms and the Union, and from some students including a friend of mine who were in the library at the time. This friend reported spending an hour with two other students in a janitor's closet during the lockdown. Eventually she was taken to Gregory Gym to be debriefed, and let go.

In all this, I noticed one thing: Nobody panicked. So much information was flying around that I think everybody on campus and nearby knew pretty much what was going on at all times. This wasn't Virginia Tech all over again. There were other key differences: The UT shooter didn't intend to hurt anyone but himself, and campus officials shut the place down in a hurry. But Facebook and Twitter and texting surely played a big role in easing the trauma for people on the scene.

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